|
ACCELERATE YOUR SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
AN ECCENTRIC BI-CIRCULAR MODEL & SOLUTION
|
TECHNOLOGY
A Broad-based term used to
cover the Technical & Commercial Activities,
Know-how, Systems, Methods, Procedures, Processes, Services, the
Accessories and Materials |
|
SUMMARY OF CONCEPTS DERIVED
|
SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ACCELERATION
CONCEPT SUMMARY SCHEMATIC
ACCELERATE YOUR SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
AN ECCENTRIC BI-CIRCULAR MODEL &
SOLUTION
PART -2. MODEL DESIGN AND SOLUTION
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Backed by my assignments with
international Socio-Economic development institutions, and accredited
scholarly associations, I developed a thirst to design a practical
model to accelerate the pace of development
of the third world nations.
Part-1 provided a " lead" towards
creating the pre-conditions to solve the constraints
envisaged by the Noble Laureate (1979) Professor Arthur Lewis
(1915-1991. St.Lucia/UK. Princeton University, Newjersey, USA) in his
Noble prize paper in Economic Science, towards the
possible de-link of the growth of developing
countries from that of the developed world. The strategic
preconditions identified were the infrastructures, made up of
intangible "Social Comfortability" and tangible
"Economic Satisfaction". Smoothing the inter-country
difference is possible through a "Techno-commercial"
normalisation, to optimise the resource
utilisation, limiting the constraints, and balancing the Sector
Productivity in a Micro level. These fine tuning
is expected to promote "domestic savings" through group
motivation and cost reduction, and pave way for "domestic
investment" leading towards productive environments and strengthening of
the "domestic technology".
These in turn promote local innovations,
research and development and domestic skill optimisation. But the
implementation of these steps assumes a vicious dimension.
Hence a mathematical modelling, simulation of the situations and
solution interpretation should be followed.
In this part-2, the model is
developed in the form of two intersecting circles, one linking the
domestic savings with the domestic investments, and the other linking the
domestic human potential with the domestic
technology. The former representing the external entrepreneurial activity
is designated as "Exogenous", and the latter
involving internal productive activity is designated as "Endogenous".
A geometric approach is used to solve
these two intersecting circles, aiming towards the
central objectives, namely, integrating the Exogenous and Endogenous
aspects, upgrading the socio-economic status, and enlarging the
qualitative and quantitative outputs.
The inference derived from
the geometric solution indicate that, the attempts to accelerate the
pace of socio-economic development should be to encourage equal efforts in
both the domestic investments through domestic savings, and -
utilisation of domestic skills for the domestic technology,
updating towards the latest world developments. This
will synchronise the Endogenous and Exogenous aspects of
Socio- socio-economic development, at any given level. Any attempt
to upgrade the existing Endogenous aspect only or Exogenous aspect
only, is bound to create an unfavourable disturbance in this
synchronisation, and it should be
immediately re-synchronised. The qualitative and quantitative dimensions
of the economy could be improved by expanding the operating
dimensions in the Endogenous and Exogenous aspects, in equal magnitude.
The past and current experiences of the
developing and the developed world support this model solution.
This model development and
solution process has attempted to provide enough "reasoning", to the
philosophy and methodology to accelerate the rate of Socio-economic
development, in line with the remarks by the Greek mathematical
philosopher Pytha- goras, whose geometric concepts are used in this
paper. Also this is a pioneer attempt to use the Geometrical methodology,
which according to the English philosopher Thomas Hobbs, is
the only science to please the Gods to bestow the
best on mankind, which could be nothing other than an
accelerated Socio-economic development. Since the total approach is based
on strong foundations and practical experience guidelines, it should be
applicable to the development criteria for all the nations in the
world, and establish an ever-lasting Peace and Prosperity in the new
Millennium.
*********************************************************
07.
THE DESIGN LEAD
Part-1 of this paper developed adequate background and
provided a "lead" towards a design to socio-economic development
optimisation model, through a mathematical approach.
This approach in a summary,
started with the question raised by the Noble Laureate in Economic Science
(1979), Sir Arthur.W.Lewis (1915-1991. St.Lucia/UK. Princeton University,
Newjersey, USA) on the existence of an inevitable linkage of the
developing world growth rate, to that of the developed ones, the possible
solutions and their constraints.
In order to create a
pre-condition to overcome the problems existing within the developing
countries, the strategic approach should be to strengthen the inter-group
relationship within a nation through social infrastructure
development, to utilise their productive capacity, and smoothen
the inter-country differences through techno-commercial upgrade.
Social infrastructure
development is a function of intangible social comfortability
and the tangible economic satisfaction. Techno-commercial
systems approach upgrades the technology, reduces the influence of
constraints, and optimises the resource utilisation. Both these result in
the development of four basic ingredients namely, the domestic
savings through group motivation and cost reduction; the
domestic investments through productive orientation, the
domestic technology through local innovation, research /
development; and domestic skills through improved
productivity, modern management methods, and operations research
techniques.
But, the implementation of
these logical steps assume a vicious dimension. Hence, it is necessary to
simulate a mathematical model, solve, and interpret the results into
implementable decisions.
08.
THE BI-CIRCULAR MODEL.
In line with the lead
provided in Part-1, and the recommended approach by the Noble Laureate
Sir. Arthur Lewis (1915-1991. St.Lucia/UK. Princeton University, Newjersey,
USA. Nobel Laureate of 1979), an econometric discussion is used in
this part, to select an appropriate model. According to the Nobel
Laureate, "If a sufficient number of developing countries reach self
sustaining growth, then we are in a new world. It will be the growth of
the developing country production that determines the developing country
trade, and internal forces that will determine the rate of growth of
production".
DEVELOPMENT CIRCLES
APART
In line with these thoughts,
the intangible domestic infrastructure should be the support for domestic
investments by the domestic savings. The tangible infrastructure is to
develop domestic technology and synchronise the domestic skills for its
optimum utilisation. These are represented by four points on space, and a
circle is drawn to link domestic savings to domestic investments, and
another circle is drawn to link the domestic technology with domestic
skills.
The domestic technology and
human potential development are intangible know-how development within a
nation, and the circle connecting these are designated as
Endogenous in line with their internal orientation. The domestic
savings and domestic investments are tangible wealth development through
surplus potential creation in a nation, and the circle connecting these
are designated as Exogenous, in line with their external
surplus generation orientation.
If the Exogenous and
Endogenous circles stand apart, then the financial aspects of the former
could not meet the know-how potential of the latter, and there could not
be any productive results.
DEVELOPMENT CIRCLES
TOUCHING
Even if they come closer and touch each other,
then also there could not be interaction between the two circles, towards
any productive result from the Endogenous and Exogenous aspects of the
economy.
DEVELOPMENT CIRCLES
CUTTING
Hence, for any development orientation in a nation, it is assumed that the
two circles should cut each other to result in two distinct points of
intersection. One point of tangible inter-section is the Capital
formation, representing an offspring of the domestic
savings approaching to meet the needs of domestic investments. The other
point of intangible inter-section is the Goods and Services output,
as a result of the utilisation of the national technology by the domestic
human potential.
GEOMETRIC CONSTRUCTIONS ON CUTTING
DEVELOPMENT CIRCLES
Selecting the line connecting the centres of
Exogenous and Endogenous circles as X axis, and the line connecting their
points of intersections as Y axis, to form and origin O (
0,0 ), this graphic representation develops an
Eccentric Bi-circular Socio-Economic Development Model, as shown
in the Geometric Model Diagram. It is assumed that the radius of the
Endogenous circle is R1, with its centre at O1(
a,0 ), and the radius of the Exogenous
circle is R2 with its centre at centre at
O2( b,0
). The co-ordinates of the various points on the two circles with
reference to the origin O
( 0,0 ) are :-
- Goods, Service outputs - A
( 0,Y01 ). Points of intersection.
- Capital formation
- B ( 0,Y02 ).
- Human potential
- C ( X11,Y11 ).
Endogenous
- Technological status
- D ( X12,Y12 ).
- Domestic investments
- E ( X21,Y21 ).
Exogenous
- Domestic savings
- F ( X22,Y22 ).
The area of the arc in the
right side of the Y - Axis represents the quantum of
Entrepreneurial background support provided by the Exogenous
circle. The area of the arc in the left side of the Y - Axis represents
the equivalent Technical Infrastructure generation by the
Endogenous circle
Using this model, a
geometric solution is attempted to optimise the Socio-Economic
Development.
09.
DEVELOPMENT OPTIMISATION
The mathematical optimisation is carried out
in a three dimensional process through : -
A)
Perfect synchronisation of Endogenous and
Endogenous
circles.
B) Development upgrade from lower to higher levels.
C) Dimensional development through qualitative and
quantitative improvement.
A geometric approach is used in the solution process.
09A.
SYNCHRONISATION OF CIRCLES
The synchronisation of
Endogenous and Exogenous circle is an attempt to integrate and normalise
the technical infrastructure represented by the former, with the
entrepreneurial background provided by the latter.
In order to aid this
solution, the lines CG, DH in the
Endogenous Circle, and EI, FJ in the
Exogenous Circle, are drawn parallel to the Y axis, meeting the X axis at
G, H, I and J respectively. The complete
geometric solution is presented in Geometric Model Solution. The
interpretation of the solutions are : -
DEVELOPMENT CIRCLES WITH
COMMON ORIGIN
-
Both circles to
have common centre at the origin, to represent a common and central
objective to synchronise the Endogenous and Exogenous aspects. There are
two solutions for this condition.
-
For a given
socio-economic development status, the solution OC = OD
could be interpreted as the degree of development in indigenous
technology should be supported by an equal development in the domestic
human skill. This enforces a need for a balance between technology and
skill at any point of time. It also implies that, even if started with
imported technology, it should be moderated to suit local
environments, and local human skills should be trained to utilise them
optimally.
-
For a given
socio-economic development plan, the solution OE = OF
could be interpreted as, any increase in domestic investment at a
point of time should be attempted through domestic savings. This
condition deterrents a nation to be foreign dependent for its
socio-economic development, after a reasonable period, even if it is
necessary to start with.
This also warrants the
efforts of domestic corporate units and house-holds to mange their
income and expense properly to generate surplus for re-investment.
DEVELOPMENT CIRCLES
WITH COMMON ORIGIN +
EQUAL RADII
-
Both circles
should have equal radii with centres on the origin, to represent
an integrated approach to the Endogenous and Exogenous
aspects, under a common objective and central guidelines.
The solution GH =
IJ could be interpreted as, the sum component of the
techno-commercial development and its practice in a nation, should be
equally supported by the sum component of domestic investments and its
generation.
It implies that any plan
for the generation and the utilisation of domestic capital should be
towards adoption of improved technology and well-trained indigenous
skills.
09B.
DEVELOPMENT UPGRADE
Once the Endogenous and
Exogenous circles are synchronised within a nation, then the next attempt
should be to upgrade the degree of socio-economic development. To initiate
this dimension, an external Y-axis PY1 representing the
Socio-Economic Development status is drawn on the left side of the
circles, parallel to the axis YY' ( See Geometric
Model ).
DEVELOPMENT UPGRADE (PUSH
UP)
The locus of the origin O ( 0,0 )
along the X Axis, upward or downward with reference to PY1
represents the development status of any nation on a relative scale.
Movement of X axis with reference to PY1 will
proportionately disturb the synchronisation pattern of Endogenous and
Exogenous circles.
1. A movement
of the X - Axis upward, or attempts to improve
the
Socio-economic development status, is expected
to result in
the following.
a) Increase
in the distances DH and EI, representing
a need for
simultaneous and equal upgrade in boththe domestic
technological status and
domestic investments, respectively.
b) Decrease in the distances CG
and FJ, indicating the occurrence
of a gap in the domestic human
skills and a reduction in domestic
savings respectively.
Hence, a planned strategy
should be followed to create the necessary pre-conditions to synchronise
the Endogenous and Exogenous disturbances as per (a) and (b), before
attempting to upgrade the socio-economic development status of any
nation, from any given existing level. This could be interpreted as
development needs simultaneous upgrade in GNP through
increased investments and improved technology, along with a strategic
approach to solve the gaps in domestic savings and skills, to realise
the productive returns from the investments.
LOWERING THE DEVELOPMENT
(PUSH DOWN)
2. On the other
hand, a movement of the X - Axis downward, or
lowering the status of Socio-Economic
development, is expected
to introduce the following effects : -
c)
Increasing the distance CG and
FJ indicating the
availability of
surplus human skills and increase in
domestic savings, respectively.
d) Decreasing the distances DH and EI
representing a
reduction in the need for advanced domestic technology
and an environment for decreased investment potential,
respectively.
These conditions are
substantiated by the fact that, a decrease in the socio-economic
development status leads to a reduction in the consumption of
commodities and services, and lowering the purchasing power of the local
currency. These lead to a corresponding reduction in the productive
activity in the economy, and result in surplus labour and under or un-utilisation
of technology. As a consequence of these, needed goods / services will
become scarce, reducing the opportunities for spending and investments.
This is a situation in which the domestic savings will exceed the
domestic investments.
09C.
DIMENSIONAL IMPROVEMENT
Besides a vertical
socio-economic development shift, it should also be possible for a nation
to moderate the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the economy along
an external X axis PX1, drawn parallel to the axis XX' (
See Geometric Model ).
The dimensional improvement
is measured on a 10 point scale, marked on either side, with zero aligned
to the origin O of the Endogenous and Exogenous circles.
QUALITATIVE IMPROVEMENT IN
DEVELOPEMNT
1. The qualitative
improvement is exhibited by increasing the
diameter R1 of the Endogenous circle with
reference to the axis
PX1, and the inferences are as follows : -
a) The degree of
synchronisation of techno-commercial
systems and domestic human potential is given by the
diameter of the circle and hence by the distance CD,
which is OC + OD, when it passes through the
centre of
the circle O1.
b) Qualitative disbursement of the utilisable human skill is
given by the distance OG.
c) Qualitative capability of the domestic technology is given
by the distance OH.
When the qualitative aspect is optimum through the synchronisation
of the circles, then , OC = OD and OG =
OH.
It implies that the
qualitative potentials of both the domestic skills and domestic technology
should be simultaneously synchronised, when the diameter CD
of the Endogenous circle is increased. Hence, any upgrade in technology,
should be equally linked to the human potential infrastructure
development.
QUANTITATIVE IMPROVEMENT IN
DEVELOPEMNT
2. The quantitative improvement
dimension is represented by
increasing the
diameter R2 of he Exogenous circle with reference
to the axis PX1, the inferences are as follows.
d) The degree of synchronisation of domestic investment with
domestic savings is
given by the diameter of the circle, and hence
by the distance EF,
when it passes through the centre of the circle
O2.
e) Quantitative disbursement pattern of
domestic investment is given
by the distance
OI.
f) Quantitative generation potential of
domestic savings is given by
the distance OH
When the
quantitative aspect is optimum through synchronisation
of the circles, then OE
= OF and OI = OH.
It implies that the
quantitative potential of both the domestic investments and savings
should be synchronised to the diameter EF of the
Exogenous circle, when the diameter R2 is increased.
Hence, any increase in domestic investments, should be planned and
linked to the quantitative availability from the domestic resources.
The qualitative and
quantitative capability of any status of socio-economic development
could be improved by increasing the diameters of Endogenous and
Exogenous circles respectively. But the attempts for such increase will
disturb the synchronisation of the circles as described above. Proper
co-ordination between the improvement and synchronisation could lead the
development towards more successful and rewarding end-results.
10. MODEL
DIRECTIVES.
To reach a status that the
internal forces among lesser developed nations will determine their own
rate of growth, Sir Arthur Lewis (1915-1991. St.Lucia/UK. Princeton
University, Newjersey, USA. Nobel Laureate of 1979) in his Nobel prize
paper said that "For those who talk the language of centre and periphery,
this means that, a number of countries leave the periphery and join the
centre. Or, if they are specially linked to each other by preferential
trade and currency arrangement, one may even speak of creation of a new
centre, consisting of former peripheral nations that have built a new
engine of growth together".
The eccentric bi-circular
model developed and solved in this paper, is an approach to move the
centre of the socio-economic development of nations upward, with the
synchronisation of its peripheral components, on the qualitative and
quantitative axes of the wheels of engines of growth.
Either internally or with
foreign assistance to start with, every nation should attempt within a
possibly minimum period, towards domestic investment supported by domestic
savings. This is an Exogenous factor. The methodology to generate such
internal surplus is the development of indigenous technology to suit the
domestic environments, its productive utilisation and updating through
domestic skills. This is an Endogenous factor. There should be equal
efforts towards internal investments as well as the technology utilisation,
as productive results are possible only when they intersect and
co-ordinate together. The Endogenous and Exogenous environment
synchronisation could lead a nation towards optimum socio-economic
development orientation.
IDEAL SYNCHRONISATION OF DEVELOPMENT
CIRCLES
The synchronised national environment should be
upgraded to lift the economy towards medium and full development form
under and developing status. This shift will disturb the achieved
synchronisation between the Endogenous and Exogenous aspects of the
economy. Then the immediate attempt should be made to re-stabilise the
degree of synchronisation, and renew the efforts for upgrade.
In a parallel process, the
qualitative and quantitative aspects of the economy should be improved by
expanding the operating diameters of the Endogenous and Exogenous
environments respectively. It implies that investments through indigenous
sources should be expanded in equal dimension with technological
advancement, utilising the domestic skills.
The socio-economic
superiority of the developed nations are due to the application of the
directives generated by this geometric model. Non-attempt towards these
directives explain the socio-economic stagnation, deterioration, and
increased dependence of under developed and developing nations on
assistances from the developed world.
The ideal situation in a
Concentric Solution shown in the Geometric
Model above .
11. MODEL
AND THE WORLD
The applicability of this
Model directives could be evaluated from the situations in both in the
Under-developed / Developing and the Developed nations.
11A.
UNDER-DEVELOPED / DEVELOPING NATIONS
-
Many nations believe that
their technological standards should be rapidly up-graded by borrowed
funds from the developed nations or institutions. A good example is in
the area of Computerisation and Atomic Power Plants, without adequate
domestic human skills as well as infrastructure to support their
continued productive utility. As a result, the funding nations /
institutions incorporate a condition that all the equipments should be
bought from them, and their Experts should be employed ( at their rate
of pay, which imposes unbearable overheads on the borrowing nation) to
implement these techno-commercial upgrades. This is against this Model
directive that, even though one starts with a reasonable foreign
investment, progressively the investment generation should be localised,
as well as the local skills should be tuned to man the same. As a
result, there are three implications on the under-developed / developing
nations.
-
They do not get the
benefit of this modernisation, as the local population is not
moderated to continue and get the productive values of these
investments.
-
They face problems of
the waste-disposal, pollution, environment degradation, shortage of
maintenance-know-how and unavailability of spares.
-
The fund provided by the
source nation or set-up is already re-absorbed by them through the
sale of equipments and consultancy charges. Inspite of these, the poor
nation is a debtor to the funded source, for the total funded amount.
-
In all under-developed and
developing nations, it is a common scene to have a policy to develop
their human skills rapidly through institutional advancement, leading to
high investment in the Institute of Technologies / Management, without
adequate development in domestic technology to absorb the skills
emerging out of these institutions. This results in the immigration of
these trained / skilled professionals towards the developed nations.
This supports the violation of this Model relationship between the
Technology and Human development. The result is that, the developed
nations benefit and absorb the under-developed / developing
human-skills, upgraded at the cost of the poor nations.
-
Some leading nations
possess Atomic Bombs and Satellite Technology, leaving a majority of
their population to suffer below the Poverty line. This confirms the
violation of this Model directives to synchronise the domestic
technological developments in line with the available human skills, to
provide their prime needs (food, clothing and shelter) at first , and
moderate the upgrade in steps. Also these non-productive / hi-tech
investments are from borrowed capital, and as a result, the country has
only expanded their international debts.
-
These nations, having
become a debtor to the developed nations and the international funding
institutions, because of the violation of this Model directive, target
to clear their balance of payments by accelerated export. This results
in exporting basic needs (food, shelter and clothing), and scarce raw
materials, to the developed nations. This deprives legitimate
requirements of the national infrastructure and the domestic population,
and the cost of living escalates beyond the reach of the common man.
Even those commodities
produced and exported by these nations, through accelerated
technological advancement, against this Model directives, are rejected
in the international market due to their poor quality and tough
international competition from other nations.
-
The deteriorating
buying-power of the domestic currency, and their low-ranking exchange
rate in the international market of these nations, are direct
implications of the violation of this Model directives.
-
Some nations over-promote
unproductive talents (Entertainment, Sports, Beauty / Fashion shows
etc...), and develop the local skills in these area, with a vicious
publicity and large domestic investments. This is an uni-lateral
development of Exogenous component. These do not produce any output
services or goods related to the Endogenous aspect, and do not develop
productive human potential and the associated domestic technology
towards national and international trade. This is not in line with the
Model directives. As a result, these unproductive and much publicised
personnel get into power, without any socio-economic development
background or talents, and destroy the nation.
11B.
DEVELOPED NATIONS
-
The largest developed
nation, believing in the principle of indigenous techno-commercial
upgrade by considering the human-potential as a commodity, at the
disposal of the State (Centralised Government), scattered into pieces
and disintegrated into small nations. Now they have to re-start their
social and economic development from scratch. Also similar nations have
to break their walls to join with a support nation, in order to
re-integrate their socio-economic development in a proper way. This
supports the fact that, the technological advancement and human
potential are two equally responsible wings of development. These
nations are now orienting their policies towards this Model directives.
-
Some developed nations,
which followed the principles of this Model, developed their local
technologies from tested and successful precedence in the world, with
their local human potential, innovation and inventions. In a phased
manner, they developed a base to bring-in domestic investments from
domestic sources. Now they are world leaders to provide the best quality
and least cost products, and their currency value in the inter-national
market is growing stronger.
-
A nation which ruled the
whole world, by bringing their investments in foreign lands, utilising
the imported skills, and at the same time suppressing the development of
the local human skills, have to leave these alien lands, by forfeiting
all the techno-commercial infra-structure created by them. This supports
the inferences of this Model that domestic source, investment,
technology, human potential are the only criteria to survive and
progress.
-
Attract human skills
needed by them from under-developed / developing nations, through an
open-immigration policy, offer domestic citizenship and naturalise /
orient them to merge into their technological infrastructure.
-
Close all visa channels
to foreigners, and strictly control the entry, where there is adequate
domestic human potential.
-
Modernise,
Cross-integrate and link their agricultural and industrial
infrastructure, so that the quality is significantly improved, cost is
drastically reduced, and the surplus from each sector support the
domestic investment needs of the other.
12.
CONCLUSION
Pythagoras, the Greek
philosopher and mathematician, who lived between 582 and 500 B.C, in his
"Diogenes Laertius" said that "The soul of man is divided into three
parts, as Intelligence, Reason and Passion. Intelligence and passion are
possessed by other animals, but Reason by man alone..... Reason is
immortal, all else is mortal." Using his geometric foundations, this paper
has attempted to provide enough "reason" for the philosophy and
methodology to upgrade the status, and create a self-sufficient existence
for the developing world.
Thomas Hobbs, the English
philosopher, who lived between 1558 and 1679 A.D said in his "Leviathan"
that "Geometry which is the only science that it hath pleased God to
bestow on the mankind". This bi-circular model and its geometric solution
is expected to please the Godly aspects of socio-economic development, and
bestow its immortal-scientific effects on the mankind of the world.
This should be the Model
guideline for all nations in the New Millennium 2000.
********************************************************
THIS-BOOK |
MENU
on Top of the Browser
10C
= Sigma ( Summation )
